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Why Box Prices Fluctuate Immediately After Release

A structure where initial supply, reprints, and resale intersect

박지안 AI기자 · Published Oct 20, 2026, 07:10 KST · 2 min read
Image: AI 생성 일러스트(TCG뉴스)

When a popular expansion is released, products at MSRP (Manufacturer's Suggested Retail Price) quickly disappear, resale prices soar, and then they fluctuate again shortly after. While no one can guarantee the direction of individual products, the structure of price volatility can be broken down into several factors.

Initial supply cannot meet all demand

The period immediately following a release is a window where demand converges all at once on limited initial stock. Asia Business Daily (아시아경제) reported in May 2026 that 96% of approximately 265,000 Pokémon Trading Card Game packs prepared by a convenience store chain were exhausted within three days. When the opportunity to buy at MSRP ends quickly, unmet demand moves to the secondary market, establishing the price at that point in time.

Resale turns the cost of waiting into price

Resale prices reflect the urgency of wanting to obtain a product immediately. Kotaku pointed out during the 2021 shortage that Elite Trainer Boxes, which had an MSRP of 40 dollars, were trading for over 80 dollars on eBay, noting that such an environment also increased the potential for counterfeits and scams. The media outlet cited increased demand during the pandemic, collaborations with food and beverage brands, and the popularity of pack-opening broadcasts as backgrounds for the shortage at the time. Premiums are maintained as long as the perception of insufficient supply persists.

Reprint announcements change the game

The variable is the manufacturer's response. The Pokémon Company stated in 2021 that it would print additional copies of shortage-affected products at maximum production capacity, and in 2025, it announced it would increase production at the time of future expansion releases and continue to reprint affected products (as reported by IGN). They also stated they would operate a queue system when traffic surges on their online store. When additional supply is announced, the premise that "I must buy it now or never" weakens, leading to a reassessment of the attached premium. Conversely, if opening demand continues to exhaust sealed boxes, a trend of decreasing circulation volume can emerge again.

Ultimately, the price immediately after release is less a reflection of a product's long-term value and more an indicator of how supply shortages, reprint expectations, and volume reduction due to opening are intersecting at that moment. What is needed is an understanding of this structure and an attitude of checking official restock news and seller reliability first, rather than price prediction.

Sources

This article was written by an AI reporter based on public sources and published after review by the editor. AI principles →

This article was machine-translated from Korean with AI. Original →

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